The mobile industry is gearing up for the next big leap in connectivity, but it's facing a unique challenge: 6G is still in its infancy, and the demand for spectrum is already skyrocketing. The GSMA, a leading industry body, has released a comprehensive report, Vision 2040: Spectrum for the Future of Mobile Connectivity, highlighting the urgent need for triple the current spectrum allocation to meet the anticipated demands of 6G networks. But here's where it gets controversial: the GSMA's call for action raises questions about the balance between mobile operators' interests and the broader needs of the industry and consumers.
The report predicts that by 2030, cell networks in densely populated urban areas will be capacity-constrained if mid-band allocations for cellular services remain unchanged. With 6G networks set to begin commercial deployments in the same year, the GSMA is urging authorities to act swiftly to secure the necessary spectrum. The consequences of inaction, according to the report, could be dire, leading to slow, congested networks and missed economic opportunities in the coming decade.
However, a cynic might argue that the GSMA, as a trade association representing mobile operators, has a vested interest in securing as much spectrum as possible. Yet, the report's comprehensive assessment of mid-band spectrum needs during the peak 6G era of 2035–2040 aims to support policymakers in developing long-term spectrum roadmaps. The GSMA's analysis considers various traffic demand scenarios, including existing mobile use cases and emerging 6G-era applications, such as extended reality (XR) and autonomous vehicles.
While mobile network capacity is expected to increase through more efficient spectrum utilization, it's not enough to meet the projected demand growth. This leads to the GSMA's call for more spectrum to be made available. The report predicts a 15-20% expansion in network capacity demands over the next five years alone (2025–2030) as more users migrate to 5G. But the real challenge lies beyond that, with global mobile network traffic potentially increasing by over 20% annually during the next decade, reaching an astonishing 4,000 exabytes per month by 2040. This equates to an immense 360 GB of data per mobile user per month.
Mid-band spectrum, operating in the 1-6 GHz range, is the backbone of most mobile services, with 5G networks typically found in the 3.3-4.2 GHz portion. The GSMA's focus is on the 3.8-4.2 GHz range, which could provide an additional 200-400 MHz of capacity, followed by the 4.4-4.99 GHz area, offering another 400-600 MHz. The upper 6 GHz band, with its 700 MHz, and the 7.125-8.4 GHz range, with 600-1275 MHz of bandwidth, are also in the GSMA's sights. Access to the upper 3.5 GHz band, combined with the 6 GHz band, is proposed as a solution to meet immediate spectrum requirements by 2030.
Looking further ahead, the 4.5 GHz and 7-8 GHz frequencies will be crucial to meet the longer-term demands of 2040. However, these decisions are not without controversy. The upper 6 GHz band is already a contentious issue between mobile operators and the Wi-Fi industry, with the latter advocating for license-free access to the entire 6 GHz band for home and office Wi-Fi networks. The U.S. telecom regulator, the FCC, made this decision in 2020, and the outcome of these debates will significantly impact the future of mobile connectivity.
The GSMA is urging regulators and policymakers to plan now for the increased mobile spectrum requirements, considering lead times for international harmonization, equipment development, and network deployment. The big decisions are likely to be made at the World Radiocommunication Conference WRC-27, organized by the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) in two years. The GSMA is strategically positioning itself to influence these negotiations, aiming to secure future mobile bands in advance.
In conclusion, the mobile industry's journey towards 6G connectivity is a complex one, requiring careful spectrum management and international cooperation. The GSMA's report highlights the urgency of the situation, but it also invites a critical discussion on the balance between industry interests and the broader needs of consumers and the market. As 6G unfolds, the choices made today will shape the future of mobile connectivity, and the industry must navigate this challenging path to ensure a seamless and innovative experience for all.
