Predicting the St. Louis Cardinals 2026 Roster: Pre-Spring Edition
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Predicting the St. Louis Cardinals 2026 Roster: Pre-Spring Edition
The seeds of the 2026 Major League season are being planted in Jupiter, Florida. With that comes the annual exercise of trying to sluth out who will make the initial cut and be rewarded with riding around the warning track in a Ford-sponsored vehicle following the Clydesdales, the “poop scoop troop,” and Cardinals Hall of Famers. Perhaps an exercise in futility, but one that provides a snapshot into where the current roster stands and what could be to come. I, by no means, have inside information on what the Cardinals are thinking, nor do I expect to be 100% correct in this process. However, I will still attempt this with blissful ignorance and a belief that I have a solid feel for the pulse of the team. This will be evidenced in a post later next month where my (somewhat) bold offseason predictions post managed to get a lot more right than wrong this time around! (nice tease, Jake) With that being said, let’s take a plunge into one of the scariest imaginative places that may or may not exist,(insert existential crisis here) my mind.
Catchers
- Willson Contreras (pictured)
- Iván Herrera
Analysis: No surprises here. Contreras is the everyday catcher, and Herrera is the backup. Contreras will catch the majority of the games, and Herrera will spell him and likely catch most of the games started by left-handed pitchers. Herrera has the ability to be an everyday catcher, but Contreras is the better player right now, and the Cardinals don’t have a need to rush Herrera into that role. Herrera will get his chances to show what he can do, and if Contreras gets hurt or struggles, Herrera is a very capable replacement.
Starting Rotation
- Sonny Gray
- Kyle Gibson
- Lance Lynn
- Miles Mikolas
- Steven Matz
Analysis: Barring injury (knock on wood), Sonny Gray is the frontrunner for the opening day start. When asked about it, he will play coy and say, “It’s just another start.” But make no mistake about it, an opening day start is an honor for MLB pitchers, and it’s one that he has admitted he wants. Dustin May comes in as the number 2 starter and has the chance to make himself a lot of money this season if he is able to re-capture some of what made him an exciting high-end prospect in the early 2020’s. After an offseason of adding strength and weight back from a horrific esophageal tear that nearly cost him his life, May has the chance to really boost the ceiling of this Cardinals rotation. Michael McGreevy comes into 2026 with what appears to be a locked-in spot for the rotation after having to wait out the Erick Fedde collapse, and subsequent bungling of that whole situation last year by the previous front office regime, which has him in pole position for that number 3 spot in the rotation.
At the number 4 spot is where things start to get interesting. Andre Pallante knows last season was not nearly good enough, and he explained away some of the issues regarding the mid-season evaporation of his command. Exiting the 2024 season, outside of Sonny Gray, most Cardinals fans would’ve told you that the next starter they had the most confidence in was Andre Pallante. He told us at Winter Warm Up that he was extremely fatigued at the end of the 2024 season and took a longer-than-normal rest period to fully heal, and that caused him to be behind in his build-up for the 2025 season. We didn’t see him get back to his average FB velocity until the first week of the season, which he admitted affected him mechanically, in turn affecting his command and feel for release point on his pitches. Assuming Pallante has a normal ramp-up period this spring, and the addition of a “Kick Change.” We could see a much better version of Pallante this season, thus raising the floor for a Cardinals team we’re skeptical can win 70+ games.
I’ll give Richard Fitts the inside track at the number 5 spot in the rotation. I really like his pitch mix featuring 6 distinct shapes and his ability to sit mid 90’s on his fastball, which gives him a little extra upside. Fitts also has a more recent track record of performance as a starting pitcher, and I think that puts him slightly ahead of Leahy. Speaking of Leahy, I see him filling that Steven Matz role from a season ago, where he will be the 6th starter at the beginning of the season. The Cardinals had great success with pitcher health last season implenting a 6-man rotation early in the season to build in additional rest. Manager Oli Marmol told us at Winter Warm Up that just because it’s the beginning of the season doesn’t mean the ramp-up stops. Guys are still building up at that point, and a lot of arm injuries occur for teams in the first month of the season when the team or the player pushes themselves too hard too soon. The Cardinals want Leahy to come in built up as a starter. That doesn’t necessarily guarantee Leahy a rotation spot, but it allows him the opportunity to compete for one. This role would also allow Leahy to continue being a weapon out of the pen, and rather than throwing a side session, have an extended appearance between starts to try and impact a game from a multi-inning relief standpoint.
Hunter Dobbins still appears to be working his way back from the ACL tear he suffered last season, and I expect he will impact the big league rotation at some point this season, but, similar to Nootbaar, I don’t see the need to rush him until he’s 100% ready, and perhaps he fills the McGreevy role from a season ago and is the next man up if there is an injury or if any of the starters just completely fall apart early in the season. Quinn Matthews is another name that is near MLB-ready but will likely need to show improved command in AAA and try to build on a solid final 6 weeks of the season last year. I also expect the possibility of an Ixan Henderson (if healthy) or Brycen Martz debut in 2026, but probably not until August or September. I have little to no expectation that we see Liam Doyle in St. Louis in 2026, but he could follow a similar path to current top prospect, JJ Wetherholt, this season, finishing the season in AAA and ready to win a big league job in 2027.
Bullpen
- Ryan Helsley (pictured)
- Giovanny Gallegos
- Riley O’Brien
- JoJo Romero (L)
- Matthew Liberatore
- Andre Pallante
- Génesis Cabrera (L)
Analysis: I’m giving Riley O’Brien the inside track to the closer’s role in 2026. At the 2025 Winter Warm-Up event, I asked former closer Ryan Helsley who he could see filling his shoes if his tenure came to a close in St. Louis, and his vote was Riley O’Brien. That type of vote of confidence from a peer, who was at the top of the game in that role, makes you pay attention. Nobody can deny the raw stuff O’Brien can bring, and last season, O’Brien found success and subsequent confidence that he belonged at the big league level. I’m looking for O’Brien to carry that over into the WBC and thus launch into the season on a mission.
Many seem surprised to see JoJo Romero still on the roster entering spring training. I would say it’s a mild surprise, but not a shocker by any means. Surface-level analysis and a 2.07 ERA would make fans think he would be in high demand. Not so much, we saw LHRP like Matt Strahm, Jose Ferrer, and Angel Zerpa be traded this offseason. Among 33 LHRP last season who pitched a minimum of 60 innings, JoJo Romero ranked 2nd in ERA, 13th in FIP (3.28), 27th in xFIP (4.12), 23rd in K% (21.6%), 29th in BB% (11.4%), 29th in K-BB% (10.2%), 20th in WHIP (1.25), 21st in LOB% (75.8%), and 30th in ERA - FIP differential (-1.22) It became obvious that after weeks had gone by since that run on lefty relievers was over, Romero was not in high enough demand to get moved. That can obviously change with a strong first half, and as a rental reliever, those are always in demand of playoff bound teams.
I think Matt Liberatore took huge steps forward last season, and perhaps if the Cardinals cash in on Romero, Stanek, and O’Brien at the deadline, that Liberatore could be the primary closer the 2nd half of the season and for the next 4+ seasons in St. Louis. Upper 90’s FB with Sink and a hard-biting slider with high leverage success to boot, he has the potential ingredients to be a successful closer. Ryne Stanek is the “veteran” reliever the Cardinals have begun a trend of identifying and elevating, between Andrew Kittredge in 2024 and Phil Maton in 2025. Ryne Stanek and his high 90’s heat hopes to be the next successful reliever in that lineage, and the Cardinals could benefit by trading him to a contender at the deadline to further add to their growing farm system.
Justin Bruihl, Genesis Cabrera, and Matthew Liberatore are all newcomers to the group who have the inside track to opening day roles in the bullpen. Bruihl, the projected 2nd lefty in the pen, has some John King to him, but with a little better secondary offering against LHH to generate more swing and miss than King did. Genesis Cabrera, acquired in a deal last week for Andre Granillo, was a bit of a head scratcher at first, but when you look at the raw data on his stuff, you see an above-average slider with over 2700 RPM of spin, 2 distinct fastballs that sit mid 90’s, and a change-up with really good depth as an option against opposite handed batters. He is out of options, however, which is still the biggest question mark about the deal, further limiting the roster flexibility. Matt Liberatore was the Cardinals’ Rule 5 selection back in December, and while nothing is guaranteed, it only costs 50K to offer him back to Miami. Mid-90’s fastball and 3 distinct breaking ball shapes with above average spin and a changeup allowed him to chew up AAA hitters last season, and this could be a truly underrated piece to the Cardinals’ bullpen in 2026.
Gordon Graceffo, Chris Roycroft, Ryan Fernandez, the recently re-acquired Zak Kent, Scott Blewett, Packy Naughton, Nick Raquet, all have big league experience and will provide depth to the big league club, but with limited flexible spots at the big league level, many of these guys probably won’t get their chance until the 2nd half of the season, after the Cardinals sell off the afformentioned veterans at the back end. Luis Gastelum is another name to keep an eye on. He has a Tommy Kahnle-like arsenal with a devastating changeup that has true outlier capabilities and could make his debut in 2026, and will be on display for Team Mexico in the WBC. Perhaps if they pitch out of their minds at AAA, we could also see debuts from Austin Love or Skylar Hales, but there’s too much uncertainty there to project that with any type of confidence at this stage.
There is a TON to be excited about this year and a lot of moving parts to this roster, and at the upper minors, the Cardinals may lack multiple true high-end talents at the big league level to give them the ceiling of a playoff team. They do have a lot more intriguing depth than they’ve had in a while, and that should excite some Cardinals fans. Unless you’re one of those who only care about winning, in which case, watch Memphis, I think they’re set up to be a PROBLEM in the International League this year.
The ground is thawing in St. Louis, full squads have reported to spring training, were closing in on Spring games being played, and the WBC is just around the corner. Who knows what the Cardinals’ season has in store, but if you’re an obsessed baseball sicko like I am, baseball is almost back, and all will be right with the world once more! A lot of interesting spring battles are about to take place, and we will have all the angles covered here on Viva El Birdos, in written and podcast form!
-Thanks for reading
